P3 – Space Weather Service Validation
Talks
P3 Thu 7/11 11:30-13:00, room Auditorium
Chairs: Yana Maneva, Leila Mays
(by session conveners)
Author(s): Alexi Glover, Juha-Pekka Luntama, Federico Da Dalt, Ralf Keil, Hannah Laurens, Judit Palacios
European Space Agency; European Space Agency; Starion Deutschland GmbH for ESA; Starion Deutschland GmbH for ESA; Starion Deutschland GmbH for ESA; Starion Deutschland GmbH for ESA
Abstract: ESA’s Space Safety programme aims to mitigate and prevent the impact of hazards from space on space and ground based infrastructure. Space weather activities within the programme include development of an extensive network of pre-operational services which build on a strong scientific basis combined with a well tested research-to-operations (R2O) process in order to demonstrate and test new capabilities with end users in the loop.
At the present time the network centres around the reliable provision of more than 300 individual products provided by more than 50 expert groups and participating entities. These individual contributions are combined into end user driven services accessed via a centralised space weather web portal.
This presentation will highlight the role that validation and verification activities take in the maintenance and further development of ESA’s Space Weather Service Network as the community prepares for the establishment of future operational services in Europe and as new supporting software developments open up much anticipated opportunities for research and development combining individual products towards new and improved user-tailored capabilities.
Author(s): Kasper van Dam, On behalf of PECASUS consortium
KNMI; PECASUS
Abstract: The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) has assigned four dedicated global space weather centers that distribute advisories about the space weather conditions that may affect civil aviation. PECASUS, the Pan-European Consortium for Aviation Space Weather User Services, is one of these centres and consists of members from Finland, Belgium, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Poland, Austria, Cyprus and the Netherlands. For over four years the centres have alternated every two weeks and combined have issued over more than 1200 advisories. In this talk we show how we plan to assess the verification and validation of the ICAO service (including all centres) by doing statistical analyses of the first four years of operations. In addition we use the Mothers’ Day storm as a case study by comparing the issued advisories with PECASUS observations during the storm time.
Author(s): L. Perrone, V. Kumar, R. Steenburgh, M. Ishii, I. Galkin, Y. Maneva, T. Fang, T. Tsugawa, I. Stanislawska, A. Maute, H. Jin, M. Fedrizzi, K. Tsybulya, P. Bagiacchi, P.Bagiacchi
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica eVulcanologia; Australian Bureau of Meteorology; Space Weather Prediction Center; National Institute of Information and Communications Technology; University of Massachusetts Lowell; Royal Observatory of Belgium/Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence; Space Weather Prediction Center; National Institute of Information and Communications Technology; Space Research Centre of Polish Academy of Sciences; Space Weather Prediction Center; National Institute of Information and Communications Technology; Space Weather Prediction Center; Fedorov Institute of Applied Geophysics; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica eVulcanologia; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica eVulcanologia
Abstract: The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has selected four global space weather centers to issue space weather advisories for aviation space weather services. Among the operational products used to monitor possible high-frequency (HF) communication problems due to post-storm depressions are the Maximum Usable Frequency for a 3000 km circuit (MUF(3000)) and the FoF2 (the highest frequency at which the ionosphere reflects). Under magnetically disturbed magnetospheric conditions, the MUF(3000) and foF2 can experience a significant decrease, potentially affecting HF ionospheric communication in aviation.
To harmonize advisory issuance, a dedicated working group was formed, representing all four global centers. Since January 2020, they have been comparing different models used by these centers, evaluating model results based on various ionospheric physics parameters and underlying ionosonde data. Additionally, the working group focuses on establishing monitoring system requirements. In this presentation, we will discuss the results of the available models applied to the several ionospheric storms, including the extreme geomagnetic disturbance that occurred in May 2024—the strongest geomagnetic storm of the current solar cycle .
Author(s): Manuel Flores-Soriano, Consuelo Cid
Universidad de Alcalá – Space Weather Group; Universidad de Alcalá – Space Weather Group
Abstract: Solar radio bursts are a known source of noise for Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) such as GPS or Galileo. They degrade the carrier-to-noise ratio of satellite signals, thereby diminishing system performance and, in severe cases, causing total service outages. Efforts to connect the radio burst intensity to the subsequent service degradation are often based on theoretical or statistical models that, for lack of more concrete observational inputs, have to rely on certain assumptions such as impact thresholds, or radio burst spectral and polarization properties. These limitations have led to the absence of empirical impact scales for this phenomenon to this day. Based on new solar radio burst observations from SMOS and on an extensive analysis that covers GPS signal degradations during the entire Solar Cycle 24, this presentation aims to provide the first results towards this empirical correlation. Furthermore, this work also presents operational requirements for both solar and GNSS observations. It highlights the role that polarization and spectral resolution play in determining the potential impact and reveals significant differences in how GPS receivers from different manufacturers respond to the same radio burst.
Author(s): Marie Dominique, Edward Thiemann, Sabrina Bechet, David Berghmans, Dalia Buresova, Javier Bussons, André Csillaghy, Sergio Dasso, Véronique Delouille, Domenico Di Mauro, Elena Driver, Agnieszka Gil, Veronika Haberle, Balázs Heilig, Rayan Imam, Giovanna Jerse, Timothy Kodikara, Marianna Korsos, Carlos Larrodera, Ewelina Lawrence, Laure Lefevre, Vincent Maget, Yana Maneva, Marco Molinaro, George Omondi, Laurianne Palin, Yuri Shprits, Jaroslav Urbář, Robertus von Fay-Siebensurgen
STCE- SIDC Royal Observatory of Belgium; Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics; STCE- SIDC Royal Observatory of Belgium; STCE- SIDC Royal Observatory of Belgium; Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS; University of Alcala; Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz; IAFE (UBA-CONICET); STCE- SIDC Royal Observatory of Belgium; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia; St Mary’s University London; University of Siedlce / Space Research Centre of Polish Academy of Sciences; GeoSphere Austria; Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia; Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica – Astronomical Observatory of Trieste; German Aerospace Center; University of Sheffield; University of Alcalá; British Geological Survey; STCE- SIDC Royal Observatory of Belgium; ONERA; STCE- SIDC Royal Observatory of Belgium; Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica; Maseno University; Thales Alenia Space; German Research Center for Geosciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS; University of Sheffield
Abstract: In February 2022, 39 Starlink satellites unexpectedly re-entered the atmosphere just a few days after launch following a moderate solar storm. The expected impact of the storm on the very low Earth orbits had been largely underestimated. Subsequent attempts to model it also produced disparate results, underscoring the need for better-constrained and validated models. One major challenge is the lack of observational data to validate these models, particularly at altitudes below 300 km, which are rarely probed by accelerometers.
However, alternative validation sources do exist. For instance, during the Starlink event, the solar Large Yield Radiometer (LYRA) was in the midst of its three-month occultation season. During this period, LYRA can be used to probe the atmospheric neutral density at altitudes between 150 and 300 km by measuring the wavelength-dependent extinction of solar irradiance due to absorption by atmospheric constituents along the line-of-sight. For this specific event, LYRA detected a density increase of up to 40% at an altitude of 200 km.
Instruments like LYRA could potentially provide valuable, albeit temporary, validation sources for models. However, since these missions are primarily designed for different purposes, their potential is not widely recognized within the scientific community. Therefore, creating a community-driven catalog of these datasets is of primary importance. Additionally, managing multiple sporadic datasets necessitates a degree of homogeneity in data formats and access protocols. As an international organization, ESWAN has the capability to build and maintain such a catalog and to work towards community standards for data and access resources.
12:44 Thoughts on validation needs from a cockpit perspective, Klaus Sievers
12:47 Exploring the validation results of ASPECS within ADVISOR, Athanasios Papaioannou
12:50 Validation of EUHFORIA Cone and Spheromak Coronal Mass Ejection Models, Luciano Rodriguez
12:53 Model verification at the Met Office: closing the R2O2R loop with continuous verification, Edmund Henley
Posters
Posters II Display Thu 7/11 – Fri 8/11, room C1A – Aeminium
Authors in attendance: Thu 7/11 10:15–11:30, 15:15-16:15; Fri 8/11 10:15–11:30
Author(s): Luciano Rodriguez, Daria Shukhobodskaia, Antonio Niemela, Anwesha Maharana, Evangelia Samara, Christine Verbeke, Jasmina Magdalenic, Robbe Vansintjan, Marilena Mierla, Camilla Scolini, Ranadeep Sarkar, Emilia Kilpua, Eleanna Asvestari, Konstantin Herbst, Giovanni Lapenta, Alexandre Chaduteau, jens.pomoell@helsinki.fi, Stefaan Poedts
Royal Observatory of Belgium; Royal Observatory of Belgium; KU Leuven and Royal Observatory of Belgium; KU Leuven and Royal Observatory of Belgium; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; KU Leuven; Royal Observatory of Belgium and KU Leuven; Royal Observatory of Belgium; Royal Observatory of Belgium and Institute of Geodynamics of the Romanian Academy; Royal Observatory of Belgium; University of Helsinki; University of Helsinki; University of Helsinki; Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel; KU Leuven; Imperial College London; University of Helsinki; KU Leuven
Abstract: We present validation results for arrival times and geomagnetic impact of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), using the cone and spheromak CME models implemented in EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA). The validating of numerical models is crucial in ensuring their accuracy and performance with respect to real data.
We compare CME plasma and magnetic field signatures, measured in situ by satellites at the L1 point, with the simulation output of EUHFORIA. The validation of this model was carried out by using two datasets in order to ensure a comprehensive evaluation. The first dataset focuses on CMEs that arrived at the Earth, offering specific insights into the model’s accuracy in predicting arrival time and geomagnetic impact. Meanwhile, the second dataset encompasses all CMEs observed over eight months within Solar Cycle 24, regardless of whether they arrived at Earth or not, covering periods of both solar minimum and maximum activity. This second dataset enables a more comprehensive evaluation of the model’s predictive precision in term of CME arrivals
and misses.
Our results show that EUHFORIA provides good estimates in terms of arrival times, with root mean square errors (RMSE) values of 9 hours. Regarding the number of correctly predicted ICME arrivals and misses, we find a 75% probability of detection in a 12 hours time window and 100% probability of detection in a 24 hours time window. The geomagnetic impact forecasts, measured by the K_p index, provide different degrees of accuracy, ranging from 31% to 69%. These results validate the use of cone and spheromak CMEs in EUHFORIA for space weather forecasting.
Author(s): Victor U. J. Nwankwo, Jens Berdermann, Frank Heymann, Naveen Timothy Kodikara, Isabel Fernandez-Gomez
Institute for Solar-Terrestrial Physics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Neustrelitz, Germany; Institute for Solar-Terrestrial Physics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Neustrelitz, Germany; Institute for Solar-Terrestrial Physics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Neustrelitz, Germany; Institute for Solar-Terrestrial Physics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Neustrelitz, Germany; Institute for Solar-Terrestrial Physics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Neustrelitz, Germany
Abstract: Space technology-enabled ability to provide important and sustained benefits to humanity in critical areas such as communications, Earth observations, technology development, navigation and space exploration is currently being threatened by the increasing population of debris in orbit. Therefore, a deliberate, effective and sustained effort must be urgently made to resolve the problem of space debris and to ensure a risk-free utilization and sustainability of the near-earth space environment. In this paper, we investigate the impact of space weather on low Earth orbit (LEO) objects in the 25 solar cycle and its driving of debris population. We model the evolution of orbital decay of cataloged LEO objects (due to space weather-enhanced atmospheric drag) as a function of predicted and observed solar indices during interval of increasing solar activity. Using the simulated results, we provide space situational awareness (SSA) for debris removal mission planning and develop relevant concepts for orbital sustainability. We thus demonstrate the vital role of the capability to monitor and understand the constantly changing space environment in space sustainability.
Author(s): Mark Dierckxsens, Lenka Zychová, Dhiren Kindarkhedia, Norma Crosby
Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy; Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy; Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy; Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy
Abstract: Although initially developed as a prototype, the COMESEP Alert System has been playing a crucial role in the fully automated dissemination of space weather alerts for more than a decade. SEPForecast, one of the COMESEP tools, provides alerts for the risk of solar energetic particle radiation storms of protons with energies > 10 MeV and > 60 MeV following the observation of solar flares. The risk level is a combination of the likelihood of occurrence and expected event peak flux which are derived from observed flare, coronal mass ejection, and ground level enhancement characteristics. The tool’s decade-long operational history, integrated into ESA’s Space Weather Service Network in September 2016, underscores its significance in forecasting space weather impact, making it an invaluable asset for timely risk assessment and possible mitigation strategies.
The performance of the SEPForecast tool during 10 years of operation is evaluated by comparing the issued forecasts with the observed conditions to derive various validation metrics. Specific time periods, missed events, and false alarms are examined in more detail to identify shortcomings of and potential improvements to the system. The technical performance, timely data availability, uncertainties in input data, and specific issues encountered while running the operational system are also discussed. Furthermore, preliminary results will be shown from extending the original validation with historical data performed during the tool development in 2013 to cover the entire Solar Cycle 24. Finally, future validation plans like studying the effect of using different sources of input data are also explored.
The COMESEP alert system was developed under the FP7 COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles: forecasting the space weather impact) project 263252 and its continued operation is supported under ESA contract number 4000134036/21/D/MRP. The work presented here was partially supported under ESA contract number 4000113187/15/D/MRP and the Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence (STCE) of the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office (BELSPO).
Author(s): Andriy Zalizovski, Artem Reznychenko, Maryna Reznychenko, Iwona Stanislawska
(1) Institute of Radio Astronomy of NAS of Ukraine, Kharkiv, Ukraine, (2) Space Research Centre of Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland, (3) National Antarctic Scientific Center of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine,; (1) Institute of Radio Astronomy of NAS of Ukraine, Kharkiv, Ukraine, (2) Space Research Centre of Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland,; (2) Space Research Centre of Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland, (4) Institute of Ionosphere of NAS and MES of Ukraine, Kharkiv,; (2) Space Research Centre of Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland,
Abstract: Ionospheric HF propagation remains important capability as independent channel of emergency communication, for instance, of air planes with air traffic controllers. Since the HF radio channels depend on ionospheric plasma conditions, space weather impacts on them. Redistribution of ionospheric plasma during geomagnetic storms leads to variations of ionospheric critical frequencies foF2 and electron density (NmF2), as well as maximum usable frequency (MUF) for HF propagation on different distances. The decrease of foF2 and MUF (foF2 or MUF depression), in its turn, has significant impact on the HF ionospheric radio communication. According to current agreements, if the geomagnetic storm with Kp = 6 or bigger was happened, the warnings are issued during 4 days after the storm about moderate depression in case of foF2 decreases of more than 30% relative to 30-days median level for the given region, and about severe depression if the depression level exceeds 50% [1].
Operational work of global space weather centers for the needs of civil aviation was started in test regime in November, 2019. Since that time, the global maps of foF2 depressions are continuously calculated in near real time in Space Research Centre of the Polish Academy of Sciences (CBK PAN) within activity of Pan-European Consortium for Aviation Space Weather User Services (PECASUS) for Civil Aviation (ICAO) [1]. There were generated of more than 150 000 global maps, those are accumulated in CBK PAN’s databases.
The idea of this study was in use of databases of global foF2 depressions maps for clarifying the details of the influence of geomagnetic storms on foF2 depressions. This study presents the results of statistical analysis of the impact of geomagnetic storms of different intensities on occurrence of foF2 depression of more than 30% level. It is shown that after planetary Kp index equal 3 no changes in the probability of depression are observed. A slight increase in the probability foF2 is started from Kp = 4, and confidently registered for Kp = 5 and bigger. The time interval of growth in the probability of depression for Kp = 4…7 is about 36 hours. When Kp = 8…9, the time of impact increases significantly. Maximum of reaction of foF2 depressions is observed at about 6-12 hours after the biggest Kp index of the storm. The obtained results might be useful for optimizing the criteria for issuing the advisories about post-storm depressions in space weather centers.
1. Kauristie, K., Andries, J., Beck, P., Berdermann, J., Berghmans, D., Cesaroni, C., De Donder, E., de Patoul, J., Dierckxsens, M., Doornbos, E., Gibbs, M., Hammond, K., Haralambous, H., Harri, A.-M., Henley, E., Kriegel, M., Laitinen, T., Latocha, M., Maneva, Y., Perrone, L., Pica, E., Rodriguez, L., Romano, V., Sabbagh, D., Spogli, L., Stanislawska, I., Tomasik, L., Tshisaphungo, M., van Dam, K., van den Oord, B. Vanlommel, P., Verhulst, T., Wilken, V., Zalizovski, A., and K. Österberg, Space Weather Services for Civil Aviation – Challenges and Solutions, Remote Sensing, 13, 18, 2021. doi: 10.3390/rs13183685
Author(s): Roberta Forte, Raffaele Crapolicchio, Nicola Comparetti, Federica Guarnaccia
Serco for ESA; Serco for ESA; Serco for ESA; Universita di Roma Tor Vergata
Abstract: SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) is an ESA’s Earth Explorer Mission in operations since November 2009, which main objective is providing global observations of soil moisture and sea surface salinity, using microwave L-band measurements.
SMOS’ instrument MIRAS (Microwave Imaging Radiometer with Aperture Synthesis), a passive L-Band 2-D interferometric full polarization radiometer operating at 1.4 GHz, captures signals not only from the Earth but also from its surrounding sky including the Sun. The SMOS Level 1B v724 data processor includes a specific algorithm (“Sun removal”) to estimate and correct the impact of the direct L-band Sun signal in the final reconstruction of the instrument interferometric measurements, being it a source of highly variable contamination. Ancillary parameters from the “Sun removal” algorithm are annotated in the SMOS L1B user products and used by Serco Italia RedLAB team to derive the Sun Brightness Temperature (BT) prototype products.
These prototype products are generated daily by our organization as part of the ESA SMOS Expert Support Laboratory (ESL). These products provide values of Sun BT and Solar Flux estimated from SMOS measurements with a temporal resolution of 100 minutes and an automatic Solar Radio Burst detection bulletin, which includes radio burst polarimetric information. The products are stored in ftp server, available for interested users.
This talk will describe the algorithm derived to generate the products and their content, the products validation based on comparison with ground-based radio telescope measurements and with databases of X-rays observations reports with a focus on high-impact events of Solar Cycle #25. In particular a review of the Mother’s Day Geomagnetic Storm occurred in May 2024 will be presented.
Moreover, an overview of possible applications of these products will be shown, in particular regarding monitoring of Space Weather events and synergies with other ESA’s Earth Explorer Mission and on-ground measurements.
We will also discuss the outcome of collaborations set up to build common Space Weather databases to further exploit SMOS Solar flux products, and in general the envisage of a future of SMOS Mission in the Space Weather field, making it one of the Mission’s objectives.
Author(s): Javier Bussons Gordo, Mario Fernández Ruiz, Manuel Prieto Mateo
Universidad de Alcalá (UAH); Universidad de Alcalá (UAH); Universidad de Alcalá (UAH)
Abstract: We introduce a new space weather service tool called “deARCE Xmatch”: deep Automatic Radioburst Compilation Engine based on cross match between several e-Callisto ground-based observatories. It is a solar radio burst (SRB) detector that combines the power of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms trained to identify SRBs in standard solar spectrograms with the advantage of redundant geographical coverage (geo-redundancy) provided by the e-Callisto worldwide network of low-cost solar spectrometers. SRB identification is optimizable by setting an adequate probability threshold above which predictions made by the ML model are considered positive. Then, demanding positive detections in at least K observatories, where K is also tunable, produces a virtually False-Positive free sample. For validation purposes, NOAA reports as well as visual inspection have been used to evaluate the performance of the combined tool. Progress in automatic classification of SRBs by type will also be reported.
Author(s): Klaus Sievers
ECA- European Cockpit Association
Abstract: At present, ICAO advisories are not systematically validated or verified in airplanes. There is, however, a need for this in order to build confidence in the system and to enable improvements in the future. I will present the cockpit perspective on ´validation´ .
The ICAO SWx advisories cover 4 space weather impacts:
a) SATCOM
Advisories for satcom are not issued at present, the exact reason beeing unknown. Possibly, a clear space-weather to SATCOM degradation connection could not be made in the past. However, Aviation has put almost all it´s eggs into the SATCOM basked: Navigation, Communication, Emergency Alerting, Surveillance.
To assure the presumed 100% reliability of aviation SATCOM, in-Cockpit monitoring of the datalink is required.
b) HF
Shortwave radio advisoires are issued, based on a network of Ionosondes and other devices. There is no end-to-end communications quality monitoring in objective terms taking place. Given the broad swaths of coverage of the advisories (e.g. ´sunlit part of the world´), it is indicated to verify this.
c) GNSS
For GNSS, Global Navigation Satellite System (= GPS, GLONASS, EGNOS…,) advisories are issued based on thresholds for scintillation values beeing crossed, for instance. Given the lack of reports of cockpit-impacts, some doubts exist if these thresholds are appropriate. Moreover, it´s unclear if the so-called augmentation systems are affected, too, by the advisories. All of this makes a case for in-aircraft validation
d) RADIATION
Radiation advisories are issued based on models. There seem to be approximately 5 or 6 models in use for that. In tests, the models produce good agreement during quiet solar conditions, but have been shown to have variations when solar activity occurs. Thus, it is indicated to monitor the radiation dose in aircraft.
Bottom line: not all aircraft will have to be equipped with validation equipment, but a sufficient portion of the aircraft fleed needs to be equipped and / or included in validation activities to continuously validate and also improve the ICAO SWx advisories
Instructions:
Please enter your abstract here (500 words max) and select the session you wish to submit to on the dialog to the right (top). Then provide information on the author and co-authors, on the presenter and on the desired presentation type (“Presenter Preference”). You should avoid writing links to external websites explicitly on your abstract text (although you can use the “Insert/edit link” button on the toolbar above).
Please check the “Terms and Conditions” below, press the “Submit” button above, and then monitor the status of your abstract on your Dashboard. You will be allowed to update your abstract up to the submission deadline.
Author(s): Athanasios Papaioannou, George Vasalos, Katie Whitman, Phil Quinn, Anastasios Anastasiadis, M. Leila Mays, Janet Barzilla, Chinwe Didigu, Christopher Light, Claudio Corti, Joycelyn Jones, Anna Chulaki, Hannah Hermann, Edward Semones
National Observatory of Athens, Greece; National Observatory of Athens, Greece; KBR, 2400 NASA Pkwy, Houston, TX 77058, USA; Leidos, 555 Forge River Rd, Webster, TX 77598, USA; National Observatory of Athens, Greece; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 8800 Greenbelt Rd, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA; Leidos, 555 Forge River Rd, Webster, TX 77598, USA; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 8800 Greenbelt Rd, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 8800 Greenbelt Rd, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 8800 Greenbelt Rd, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 8800 Greenbelt Rd, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 8800 Greenbelt Rd, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 8800 Greenbelt Rd, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA; NASA Johnson Space Center, 2101 E NASA Pkwy, Houston, TX 77058, USA
Abstract: Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events can adversely affect space and ground-based systems. Space weather effects associated with SEP events can impact include communication and navigation systems, spacecraft electronics and operations, space power systems, crewed space missions, and commercial aircraft operations. In preparation for human exploration missions, such as Artemis, a clear need for transitioning SEP prediction models to operational readiness has emerged. In this work, the outputs of the validation of the different components/modules of the newly updated version of the ASPECS (Advanced Solar Particle Event Casting System) tool based on the SEPVAL (SEP Model Validation) 2023 sample are being presented. Emphasis is given on the comparison of the different inputs/catalogs and the resulting performance of the tool. Metrics such as the Probability of Detection (POD), the False Alarm Rate (FAR), the Percent Correct (PC), the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and the True Skill Score (TSS) are generated for each of the different flavors of the newly implemented version of ASPECS. Comparisons between the predicted and observed peak proton fluxes, and SEP time profiles at E>10 MeV and E>100 MeV are put forth and discussed.
This work was supported through the ADVISOR – OptimizAtion, DeliVery & Installation of the ASPECS tOol for Space WeatheR research within ISEP project, contract SMS0016862
Author(s): Iurii Cherniak, Irina Zakharenkova, John Braun
COSMIC Program Office, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research; COSMIC Program Office, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research; COSMIC Program Office, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Abstract: The representation of the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere in terms of vertical distribution of plasma density above the F2 layer peak, as well as electron content within and above the F2 layer, is a challenging task for empirical and physics-based models.
Low Earth orbit (LEO) GNSS radio occultation measurements serve as unique data sources to retrieve electron density distributions above the F2 layer peak, as well as electron content above the LEO orbit with global coverage. The COSMIC-2 mission developed for the low latitude atmosphere and ionosphere operational monitoring provides several high-quality products suitable for retrieving of the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere climatology dependences over the very challenging equatorial region. In particular, accuracy of the electron density profiles (EDPs) and absolute total electron content (aTEC) products were strictly validated to be considered as the reference.
During 5 years of the COSMIC-2 mission operation, the UCAR CDAAC collected valuable datasets covering continuous temporal intervals corresponding to low, mid, and high levels of solar activity, including a period close to the 25-cycle solar maximum.
By combining the COSMIC-2 EDP and aTEC products, we retrieved climatological dependences of key parameters around the F2 layer peak, topside ionosphere and plasmasphere. We investigate seasonal and solar cycle driven climatological dependences of the F2 layer peak parameters (used as the main anchor point in the ionospheric models), climatology of electron content below (bottom-side) and above (topside) the F2 peak, as well as contribution of bottom side and topside regions of ionosphere to the ground-based total electron content via combination of COSMIC-2 ionospheric measurements with IGS global total electron content maps.
With the obtained climatological results, we evaluate the performance of empirical ionospheric models, IRI and NeQuick, to demonstrate essential model-data discrepancies, which need to be improved for the correct representation of the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere by these models.
Author(s): Edmund Henley, Suzy Bingham, François-Xavier Bocquet
Met Office; Met Office; Met Office
Abstract: The Met Office has onboarded many new space weather models via the SWIMMR programme, significantly extending its capability to model various environments between the sun and Earth, as well as impacts on technologies in these domains.
Significant research-to-operations work has already been done by the model developers in the UK academic community, including on verification. As these models are further operationalised however, and used to underpin new operational services, the requirement for verification grows beyond the work done to date.
Specifically, we see a need to put our space weather models under a “continuous verification” harness. This differs somewhat from the punctual verification / validation typically used in space weather, examining model performance on a given number of case studies. Instead, we propose to also verify models over continuous periods of current space weather conditions. This approach is also used to good effect by terrestrial weather: by definition such “test” data periods cannot be present in model “training” data set, and can dispel concerns of cherry-picking, and probe for over-tuning. As such, this provides a useful complement to case studies, vital for examining more unusual conditions of interest, less likely to arise by chance during a continuous test period.
Continuous verification is also useful for operations-to-research, on longer timescales: it can demonstrate where previous investment has driven improvements, helping make the case for further investment. And it can also drive friendly competition and learning between model developers, by exposing times or conditions where the approach used by a given model is beneficial.
In this presentation, we outline our ambitions for model verification, the framework we plan to apply over time across our models, and argue the rationale for this approach, and why we believe this should become a norm for space weather model development, as it is for terrestrial weather.
Author(s): Christine Verbeke, M. Mierla, M. L. Mays, C. Kay, M. Dumbović, P. Riley, M. Temmer, E. Palmerio, E. Paouris, C. Scolini, L. Balmaceda, H. Cremades, K. Martinic
KU Leuven / NASA GSFC; Royal Observatory of Belgium; NASA GSFC; NASA GSFC; University of Zagreb; Predictive Science, Inc.; University of Graz; Predictive Science, Inc.; George Mason University; Royal Observatory of Belgium; George Mason University; University of Mendoza / CONICET; University of Zagreb
Abstract: Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are large-scale eruptions of plasma and magnetic fields from the Sun. They are considered to be the main drivers of strong space weather events at Earth.Multiple models have been developed over the past decades to be able to predict the propagation of CMEs and their arrival time at Earth. Such models require input from observations, which can be used to fit the CME to an appropriate structure.
When determining input parameters for CME propagation models, it is common procedure to derive kinematic parameters from remote-sensing data. The resulting parameters can be used as inputs for the CME propagation models to obtain an arrival prediction time of the CME f.e. at Earth. However, when fitting the CME structure to obtain the needed parameters for simulations, different geometric structures and also different parts of the CME structure can be fitted. These aspects, together with the fact that 3D reconstructions strongly depend on the subjectivity and judgement of the scientist performing them, may lead to uncertainties in the fitted parameters. Up to now, no large study has tried to map these uncertainties and to evaluate how they affect the modelling of CMEs. Furthermore, when using these determined parameters as inputs into CME propagation models, they spread throughout the modelling domain and influence the final results of the simulation and the predicted arrival time of the modelled CME.
Fitting a large set of CMEs within a selected period of time, we aim to investigate the uncertainties in the CME fittings in detail. Each event is fitted multiple times by different scientists. We discuss statistics on uncertainties of the fittings. We also present results of the impact of these uncertainties on CME propagation modelling.
Acknowledgements: This work has been partly supported by the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) in the framework of International Team 480 entitled: Understanding Our Capabilities In Observing And Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections’.
Author(s): Pierre Cilliers, Mike Kosch, Jonathan Ward, Mpho Tshisaphungo
South African National Space Agency; South African National Space Agency; South African National Space Agency; South African National Space Agency
Abstract: Space Weather impacts on the ionosphere are known to affect HF Radio propagation conditions and the predicted signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) over selected links. The ISES Regional Space Weather Warning Centre (RWC) at the South African National Space Agency in Hermanus (34.4063° S, 19.2687° E) regularly provides HF propagation predictions over selected paths in the region. These predictions are based on the ICEPAC model. ICEPAC is an enhanced IONCAP (Ionospheric Communications Analysis and Prediction) model developed by the Institute of Telecommunications Sciences (ITS) in Boulder, Colorado, during the 1970s. ICEPAC is a full system performance model for HF radio communications circuits in the frequency range of 2 to 30 MHz. ICEPAC was designed to predict HF sky wave system performance and analyze ionospheric parameters used in the planning and operation of HF communication systems.
Currently, validation of the predictions by the RWC in Hermanus is limited to the comparison of foF2 predictions for near-vertical-incidence at two locations in the region, with foF2 values derived from ionosonde measurements. To extend the validation of the predictions by the SANSA to long-distance HF Radio propagation within the region, the SNR of HF Radio transmissions by the transmitters of the Northern California NCDXF/IARU International Beacon Project (https://www.ncdxf.org/pages/beacons.html) at selected frequencies are monitored using an Icom 728 Amateur band transceiver in Hermanus. Each beacon transmits once on each of the five amateur bands, namely: 14.10 MHz, 18.11 MHz, 21.15 MHz, 24.93 MHz and 28.20 MHz, once every three minutes, 24 hours a day. The antenna used for the system in Hermanus is an MFJ-1778 G5RV multiband inverted-vee antenna which is connected to the system via an antenna tuning unit to improve the SWR of the G5RV. The Icom transceiver is controlled by a PC running the FAROS 1.4 software (https://www.dxatlas.com/faros/) which steps through five HF bands allocated to amateur radio every three minutes, 24 hours per day. The software was developed by Alex Shovkoplyas (VE3NEA) in 2006. The HF beacons transmit according to a known timing sequence and calibrated power levels. Each transmission consists of the call sign of the beacon sent at 22 words
per minute followed by four one-second dashes. The call sign and the first dash
are sent at 100 W. The other three dashes are sent at 10, 1 and 0.1 W, stepping
downward in power with each dash. The FAROS software automatically detects the presence of the beacon, the short and long path, and measures the SNR (dB), QSB index (%), and the signal propagation delay. A Bayesian classification algorithm is
used to accurately distinguish beacon signals from noise to avoid false reporting. The strength of signals from each of the beacons is logged and presented in the form of SNR plots.
This paper presents some results obtained with the NCDXF monitoring system at SANSA in Hermanus and evaluates the usefulness of this system for the validation of HF signal propagation predictions.