Highlights
Space weather model validation and from space weather models to operational services
– an overview of the P3, CD3 & CD4, APL1&APL2 sessions –
Iulia Chifu
Institute for Astrophysics and Geophysics,
G.-A. University of Göttingen
Even though in recent years scientists gain more knowledge in the physics of space weather physics, the field of research is still young. The field of space weather is rather challenging as the end users expect accurate models and they expect them now. To be at the level of the high expectations, most probably we still need to dig deeper in the physics of the phenomena responsible for the space weather, from the source to the impact. It is true that nowadays with the help of the increased computational power and ML, the field of solar physics and space weather is evolving in developing more sophisticated models for understanding solar phenomena and for SW forecasting. The community driven sessions CD3 and CD4 have their focus on contributions which shows improvement in modelling of the near-Earth space radiation and plasma environment through integration of space weather models, engineering tools and innovative scientific methods, such as AI/machine learning, data assimilation, ensemble modelling, open science, for space weather forecasts and applications in operations, software and tool developments that facilitate open model validation, ussage of multi-spacecraft observations for model validation. The plenary session P3 aims at showing validation of scientific models, which could be used in support of space weather service provision, as well as validation of operational and pre-operational services. The application pipeline sessions are oriented on contributions exploring the critical pathway between space weather research and practical operations, and on the real-time data acquisition and monitoring to communicate effectively with end users.
You can get more insights into the talks of the CD3 session on Monday and Thursday afternoon. The APL1 and APL2 on Monday before and after lunch time, and the CD4 session presents its program on Friday morning.
Christian Möstl (talk on Friday, 08.11 at 09:24; contributed highlight text, here), the highlight of the CD4 session reviews the present status and future developments in forecasting the geomagnetic effects of coronal mass ejections. Despite the strong progress in the remote sensing and in-situ observations, the “[…] the forecasts for expected geomagnetic storm levels [..]” are still very unclear, the “[…] solar wind forecasts are still very uncertain compared to the terrestrial weather forecast.” In his talk, C. Möstl will speak about the “[…] current status regarding prediction methods, the modeling and validation of CME speeds and their southward Bz magnetic fields and point out possible avenues in order to improve the situation.”
Manuel Flores Soriano (talk on Thursday, 07.11 at 12:17; contributed highlight text, here), a highlight of the P3 session, investigates the “degradation of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) signals by solar radio bursts (SRB)”. Solar radio bursts at low frequencies originate in the layers of the solar atmosphere in which most of the geoeffective disturbances have their sources [1]. It is well known that one of affected systems by the geomagnetic storm is the GNSS which consist of a constellation of satellites orbiting the Earth in specific trajectories. There are a couple of GNSS constellations and one of them is the Global Positioning System (GPS). Solar radio bursts create distruptive communications for the GNSS systems. M. F. Soriano will show results on the correlation between the intensity of the SRB and the “[…] GPS signal degradations during the entire Solar Cycle 24 […]”. Alexi Glover (talk on Thursday, 07.11 at 11:33) will gives us insights on the ESA Space Weather Service Network which provides “access to more than 300 targeted products grouped into 29 user focussed services via the centralised ESA Space Weather Service Portal”. She will focus on the research to operations to research (R2O2R) processes as part of the ESA service network.
Research-to-Operations-to-Research (R2O2R) refers to the cyclical process by which basic research endeavors (R), having been identified as having the potential for improving forecasting capabilities, are matured, in a targeted way, toward a formal operational implementation (O) and, once “operationalized”, subsequent needs for refinements are conveyed back to the research community (R) [2].
Jenny Knuth (talk on Monday, 04.11 at 14:00; contributed highlight text, here) will show us some of the SW web applications, among which SWx TREC, KNMI SW Timeline Viewer. “These tools incorporate standard web components and design elements […]” and within the web tools one can “[..] view a solar flare on the Sun then follow a subsequent Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) as it travels through the interstellar medium to Lagrange point 1, to Earth’s magnetosphere, atmosphere, and down into the ground”.